The new guy to beat
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic might well have equally divided the last eight Grand Slams between them, but neither of them is the man to beat right now - there’s another guy who has scored more ranking points than any other player this year, won three tournaments in a row, and lost just one ATP Tour singles match in 2012. In fact, he has won 39 of his last 41 matches, since suffering the narrowest of losses in last September’s US Open semi-final.
His back to back wins in Rotterdam, Dubai and Indian Wells - where he won a record-equaling 19th Masters title - have seen him playing as well as he ever has, with all the purpose and determination of the hungry young contender he once was. His forehand, once labelled by McEnroe as “The greatest stroke in our sport”, is back to it’s lethal best. It dismantled Murray in Dubai, and demolished Nadal in the Californian desert; inside-out, inside-in and cross-court - with an untold number of winners flowing from that wing.
His artistry has been feted by the critics over the course of his amazing career; his racquet, they say, is his paintbrush; his mastery of the game at times reducing his opponents to mere facilitators of his greatness…just hitting the ball back to him until he does something wonderous; magical.
But, in Roger Federer’s strokeplay, there is a tendency for people to overlook some of the other qualities that have made him the quintessential champion he is.
Take, for instance, his hunger and desire to remain at the top of the game, which, with Nadal and latterly Djokovic threatening to take the sport to greater heights, is truly phenomenal.
Or his longevity. His Australian Open quarter-final this year was the 1,000th ATP match of his career, taking him into an elite group of only seven players to have reached the landmark.
How about his resilience? It says a lot about the man that he has never once retired during a match. In victory and defeat, Federer fights on, albeit with body language which reveals no fatigue or frustration. Now in his 31st year, he is still as fit as anybody; in superb physical condition and with great mental stamina. He is so fluent, and is taking so little out of his body.
Above all, Federer just loves and relishes the competition. He has - and continues to - raise the standards of the men’s game, and, as younger men than him look to add their own names to the history books, the Swiss looks determined to stick around and cement his own legacy. And by playing like a hungry, talent-laden rookie without a title to his name, he might just do it!
Melbourne - a final analysis
The recent Australian Open final pitted an irresistible force against an immovable object, culminating in an incredible 5 hour 53 minute duel between two of the strongest minds and wills in the history of tennis.
The longest Grand Slam final ever was utterly absorbing, not so much for the level of tennis Djokovic and Nadal reached (the quality of their US Open final last September scaled greater heights), but because of the scenario, the drama and the sheer will and commitment of both players.
After the US Open I wrote that after six straight losses in finals to Djokovic, it was difficult to see what more Nadal could bring to the court the next time they met. This latest defeat will make things even tougher for the Spaniard, since the Serb didn’t play anywhere near his best tennis. In an amazing semi-final against Andy Murray - itself a near 5 hour classic and the match of the tournament - Djokovic was pushed to his physical and mental limit, and, as a result, came into the final somewhat jaded and making a lot of uncharacteristic unforced errors. This made it appear that Rafa was getting closer to Nole, but it was an illusion because Novak wasn’t at his best.
Although the Spaniard started the match determined to play closer to the baseline and dictate play more by hitting his forehand down the line to the Djokovic forehand, he was defensive from the outset, too far behind his baseline and playing more to protect himself than hurt his opponent. The stats after three sets showed that Rafa was playing from inside the court only 4% of the time compared to Novak’s 34%! So many of Rafa’s shots were short or down the middle, which allowed Novak to dictate and be one shot ahead all the time. Also significant for me was how limited Nadal’s backhand was. Rafa was always defending because he kept trying to change the diagonal in order to avoid being attacked on his weaker side, but so many of these shots were short - barely making it past his opponent’s service line - that they were either crushed by the Djokovic backhand, or else Novak ran around them and hit big inside-out forehands. And whereas the Spaniard’s first serve undoubtedly saved him during this final (67% in, with 66% of points won behind it), his second serve was too often a liability and eaten alive by the Serbian.
In my view, without Rafa’s extraordinary courage, the final would have been over in four sets. His amazing fighting abilities and great heart are truly gut-wrenching; the best of any player I’ve seen in 40 years of watching tennis.
Nole has now won four of the last five majors. His level of fitness, mental strength and determination to win under any circumstances is astonishing, and he has come to dominate the Tour while playing in the same period as two of the greatest champions of all-time in Roger and Rafa. In terms of match-ups, I believe from here on that Federer and Murray will continue to push Djokovic harder than Rafa now can, because they are more aggressive, creative, dictating players.
As for Rafa, he will somehow need to add more variety to his game if he is ever to trouble Nole in the Slams again. He always plays to the same areas on the return, his backhand is nearly always down the line to change the diagonal, his forehand is too often hit cross-court to Djokovic’s strength and his serve is too often sliced to Novak’s two-hander - and usually gets punished. He will also have to drastically improve his second serve.
With his fifth Grand Slam title, Djokovic has sent a clear message to all the other players…he’s still very much the boss!
King of Kings
As I write, Roger Federer has just set yet another record in his glittering career by winning his sixth end-of-season title (now the ATP World Tour Finals Championship), eclipsing the five victories of Ivan Lendl and Pete Sampras. But even if we remove this latest phenomenal achievement from the equation, there can be little if any doubt remaining that the Swiss has already achieved enough since 2003 to deserve the mantle of the Greatest Tennis Player of All-Time.
Over the past eight years, like other masters of their craft, Federer’s body of work has ranged from the exceptional to the sublime. He has amassed multiple records which will likely stand the test of time. Here, I mention just 10 of his most amazing feats, and attempt to put them into context. The chances of these achievements being equalled or bettered during his lifetime are, I believe, extremely thin.
1. Winning five consecutive titles at two different Grand Slam tournaments. Since the abolition of the Challenge Round (when the defending champion was automatically placed in the following year’s final) Federer is one of only four players to have won the same Grand Slam tournament five consecutive years. But Federer is the only player in history to win two different Grand Slam titles (Wimbledon 2003-07 and the US Open 2004-08) for five consecutive years.
2. Winning 16 Grand Slam titles in the span of 27 majors. After going titleless in his first 16 Grand Slam tournaments, Federer made up for lost time, winning 16 of his next 27. Beginning with his 2003 Wimbledon breakthrough, the Swiss won more than 50% of the majors he contested. In contrast, Pete Sampras won his 14 majors over a span of 45 Slams.
3. Reaching 18 of 19 consecutive Grand Slam finals between Wimbledon 2005 and the Australian Open 2010. This record goes beyond consistency. It is a statement of Federer’s unrivaled excellence at the pinnacle of the sport - the Grand Slams - and his ability to play his best under pressure and when it counts most. No other player in history has come even close to a streak of Grand Slam final appearances like this - and no one likely ever will.
4. Reaching 23 consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals (or better) from Wimbledon 2004 to the Australian Open 2010. To put this feat into context, Federer’s streak was more than double the length of Ivan Lendl’s 10 consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals reached - the next best streak! From the 2004 Australian Open to the 2010 French Open, the only time Federer didn’t make the last four at a major was in 2004 at Roland Garros, when he was beaten by three-time champion Gustavo Kuerten in the third round; that is 24 of 25 consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals (or better) - another simply staggering record that will almost certainly never be matched.
5. Winning 24 consecutive finals. In 2004 and 2005, Federer won 22 consecutive finals in which he appeared (in addition to winning his last two finals of 2003) for a streak of 24 straight finals won. That’s astonishing, considering that he was going up against the second best player in each of those particular tournaments. In finals, you not only have to play well, you have to play clutch. Federer’s finals streak ended at the last event of 2005, the Tennis Masters Cup. It was all down hill from there for Roger, who in 2006 lost in four finals (all against Rafael Nadal) and only won 12 titles :-)
6. Reaching all four Grand Slam finals in the same season three times. Only two singles players have ever reached all four Grand Slam finals in the same year: Rod Laver, who did it twice when he completed calendar-year Grand Slams in 1962 and 1969, and Federer, who did it a remarkable three times in four years. Considering that the Swiss is the only man to reach all four Slam finals on three different surfaces (hard court, grass and clay), it seems even more unlikely that someone will top this feat in Federer’s lifetime.
7. Three-year period of dominance. Between 2004-2006 Federer went on a tear that would be almost impossible to match during any future three-year period, compiling an amazing 247-15 match record! His season records during that time were 74-6 (2004), 81-4 (2005) and 92-5 (2006). He won a stunning 34 titles, including eight Grand Slams, nine ATP World Tour Masters 1000s and two Tennis Masters Cup titles. Had he served out the 2005 Tennis Masters Cup final against David Nalbandian (instead of losing in a fifth-set tie-break), Federer’s season record that year would have been 82-3, the same as John McEnroe’s unrivaled match record in 1984.
8. Holding the Number One ATP ranking for 237 consecutive weeks. This incredible record is best contextualized by looking at the next best streaks: Jimmy Connors at 160 weeks, Ivan Lendl at 157 weeks and Pete Sampras at 102 weeks. Today, Roger’s 285 weeks falls just one short of Sampras’s all-time (non-consecutive) record of 286 weeks at No. 1.
9. Sixty-five consecutive grass-court match wins. This streak could so easily have ended at 39 when he saved four match points against Olivier Rochus in the Halle quarter-finals in 2006. But history will show that Federer scraped through that one and ultimately extended his record streak to 65 before losing 9-7 in the fifth set to Rafael Nadal in their epic 2008 Wimbledon final. With modern-day grass-court tennis no longer favouring a dominant serve-volleyer like a Sampras, Becker or Edberg, it will be much more difficult for one player to dominate on the surface and threaten Roger’s record streak.
10. Winning at least one Grand Slam title a year for eight consecutive years. Achieved between 2003-2010, this feat equals the record streak of Pete Sampras and Bjorn Borg. What are the chances of someone else extending the record to nine or more seasons? Slim to none in my view!
And the story continues with today’s record-breaking sixth ATP World Tour Finals victory. Though past his prime at 30, the Swiss still appears to have a few more years at the very highest level left in him, and it remains to be seen how many other records may fall before he decides he has had enough. Roger Federer is a legend in his own time. Is he the greatest player of all-time? Quite possibly. Has there ever been anyone better? Absolutely not.
Djokovic, Nadal & Federer Streets Ahead
The recent US Open has re-confirmed the already plainly obvious; that Djokovic, Nadal and Federer are still a considerable distance ahead of the rest of the field. Andy Murray is a distant fourth, and even though he was runner-up in the Australian Open in January and a French, Wimbledon and US Open semi-finalist - great consistency by any standards - I do feel that he’s still not quite in the same league as the three men ahead of him.
It may seem like a strange, even slightly unfair thing to say about a player who, after all, does have numerous wins against the top three to his name. But, as always at the very highest level of the game, it comes down to the finest of margins. Murray’s play, overall, is still far too passive to really put a big enough dent in the games of the Serb, the Spaniard or the Swiss on the biggest occasions. He gets away with it against lesser opponents with his fitness, court craft and variety, but he really needs to ‘up the ante’ against the big three if he is to take that extra step and actually win a Slam. Although he is a great competitor, his temperament still needs much work, and this, I believe, is another huge factor preventing him from surpassing his present level. This level is obviously very high, allowing him to maintain his ranking, but I am convinced that unless he changes something dramatically in his approach or preparation, he will continue to be a last four player in the Slams, or an occasional runner-up at best.
The transformation in Djokovic this year has been nothing short of astounding! There is still a way to go, but he could well be heading towards the greatest ever season in terms of win/loss ratio, should he eclipse McEnroe’s 82-3 record in 1984. Time will tell. Irrespective of this, I absolutely believe that but for a superb performance by Federer to stop the Serb in the Roland Garros semi-finals, Djokovic would now be holding all four majors, and we would all be marvelling at the first calendar Grand Slam since Laver’s back in 1969. Roger certainly did Rafa a huge favour by taking out Novak that day!
After 5 straight losses to Djokovic (2 on hard, 2 on his beloved clay and, of course, the grass at Wimbledon) going into the US Open Final, Nadal played as well as I’ve ever seen him play - maybe better. The level of play in the final was simply breath-taking, especially in the third set; without doubt the most amazing set of tennis I’ve ever seen for sheer quality and intensity, with both players displaying astonishing athleticism and the most unbelievable ball striking. It is Djokovic’s fantastic athletic ability, coupled with his intensity and self-belief that is allowing him to do something unimaginable a year ago; dominate Nadal from the baseline. Quite literally, he out-Nadals Nadal; wearing him down mentally and physically. It’s really hard to see what more Nadal can bring to the court. Now, after 6 straight wins against the World Number Two, Djokovic most certainly has Nadal’s number. Only if the Serb’s almost invincible present form drops (as it invariably must at some point) can I see Rafa having any further success against Nole in the majors.
Djokovic’s only serious challenger this year has been - and I believe will continue to be - Roger Federer. The match-ups among the top three are fascinating right now; Djokovic brutalises Nadal in a way Federer can’t, Rafa poses problems for Roger that Novak can’t - but the Swiss maestro has twice proved this season that he alone still has the beating of the Serb. The evidence is that a Roger at his very best is still a tad too good for Nole, even at Djokovic’s incredible current level.
Their French semi-final was a classic, toe-to-toe encounter of the very highest quality; undoubtedly one of thematches of the year. Seldom has the ball been taken so early by both players on clay; neither player giving up his baseline, speeding up each shot and displaying great footwork when moving forward. A vintage display of clutch serving by Roger made the difference and saw him home in four sets.
Much the same level of play in the Flushing Meadow semi saw Roger open up a two set lead against the seemingly unbeatable World Number One. Novak responded brilliantly, sweeping majestically through the third and fourth sets to level the match, but significantly, Federer had picked up his level just enough towards the end of the fourth set to check the Serb’s momentum and ensure that he would serve first in the final set. Quite unlike the subsequent final, in which you couldn’t really see Nadal winning, this really was anybody’s match. The rest is history. Novak’s ‘miracle forehand’, on the brink of defeat at 5-3, 40-15 Roger serving, was something only he could have pulled out of the bag this year, with his supreme confidence and self-belief at an all-time high.
Nevertheless, the quality of Federer’s serving, his huge forehand and great variety of spins and angles takes Djokovic out of his comfort zone like no other, and doesn’t allow him to boss the points or get into quite the same relentless rhythm as he can against Rafa. Murray at his very best has shown he can also break up Nole’s rhythm; jerk him around and induce errors, but as I said earlier, Andy needs to back this up with more firepower off the ground to be a serious threat to the big three over five sets. As I see things right now, if Roger keeps his present mood, he is the only one that can seriously threaten the world’s top player.
Predictably, people are already starting to see the Serb as the next winner of ten or more Slams, which is perhaps a little premature to say the least! Before Djokovic can be seen as an equal of Roger and Rafa, we need to find out whether Novak can sustain his present fantastic level - which relies on incredible athleticism, confidence, intensity and baseline domination - for another 4-5 years. Also unknown, as yet, is how he will react after a few disappointing losses - which will inevitably come - and whether he can maintain the same level of confidence; not to mention stay injury free, with his ultra-demanding playing style. For, like Nadal, Djokovic doesn’t possess the same technical gifts as Federer has, which puts the longevity of the top two in question with their intensely physical games.
